Thursday, October 22, 2020

Political polls are worth squat


 

 
Thursday, October 22, 2020
 
Any politician than runs a campaign on honesty is a fool.
People know honesty and politics go together like oil and water – which means there’s a lot of scum on top.
Media does its best to hide the Democratic scum, which is largely why NPR decided not to cover the Biden laptop situation.
Some reporters just aren’t willing to get their hands THAT dirty.
These days when you graduate from journalism schools it takes you a decade to live it down, and the rest of your life to unlearn what you got taught there.
The biggest scam in media are the polls they keep popping up with to show Biden so far ahead that Trump voters ought to sit this election out.
Media’s pollsters try to sell us on the idea that most people aren’t satisfied with Trump’s leadership. Most people know more about TV reality shows than they do about politics, and generally mistakenly believe all the crap media tells them.
The polls are almost as dishonest as the stories those news organizations pass off as news.
Generally, they go out and interview as many Democrats as they can – if they can find enough unsuspecting suckers to actually talk to them. Most people hang up on pollsters, and yet we get the hype from places like the Washington Post or CBS that this comes from a fair share of voters – generally registered voters, not likely voters, and mostly democrats with too few republicans or independents thrown in as a spice.
Trump does much better when you figure in likely voters as opposed to registered voters.
These polls often mix and match gender, race, education and income so that we get a distorted viewpoint – unless the poll wants to show how women are against Trump and so you get pollster seeking women in areas historically anti-GOP.
College polls are even more pathetic, often using poli-sci students as pollsters rather than professionals, who could care less about the scientific accuracy. One such former student who did work for Rutgers Eagleton called those polls as joke.
“They are about as scientific as witchcraft and generally come up with a result our manager wanted us to get,” he said.
The national polls are even more pathetic because everybody knows New York and California hate the GOP and so any poll is going to show the Democrat ahead.
Battleground or swing states are different, but the polling is just as inaccurate.
Trump reporters are less likely to be honest in responding to a poll than Democrats.
This election will hinge on what happens in Florida and Ohio. Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Arizona and even Texas gets thrown into this mix, but both are likely to go to Trump no matter what media tells us.
Campaign polls are deadly accurate and so the best way to determine if a state is in play is to look where the candidates go and how often.
But pollsters tend to ask the wrong questions even when they attempt to be honest, failing to figure into the mix whether or not people feel they are better off today than they were four years ago.
Democrats need the black and Latino vote, and Democrats appear to be losing many of these – which is why they’ve dragged Obama out, even though Obama hates Biden almost as much as he hates Trump.
Many black men did not vote for Clinton in 2016 and are not likely to be lured in by Harris the way black and white women are.
Trump is attracting a larger percentage of blacks than in the past, and even a larger percentage of Latinos – particularly in Florida.
Democrats hope to make up for this by courting young liberal voters. But moderate Democrats do not trust the social agenda being sold by the racial left, and this makes Biden’s support soft.
Pollsters do not figure newly registered voters. The GOP has far outpaced the Democrats in this area in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – which may well let him win those states again.
The reason why media and the Democrats are throwing all caution to the wind is that they know Trump could win this in a landslide, the way Nixon beat McGovern in 1972, and for the very same reasons – too much race-baiting, too much cancel culture, and not enough common sense.
 
 
 

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